What is regional and coastal modelling?
Regional and Coastal Modelling is a specialised field of oceanographic research dedicated to simulating the physical, chemical, and biological processes of the nearshore and shelf regions. These models are vital for simulating complex marine processes.
They capture the intricate interactions between the land, sea, and atmosphere in the specific areas where human activity and ecological systems are most concentrated.
Why does NOC research this?
The National Oceanography Centre conducts this research to support UK coastal resilience by forecasting flooding and storm surges. We aim to inform marine policy and planning, such as the creation of marine protected areas and the placement of offshore infrastructure. Beyond policy, we advance the scientific understanding of shelf and coastal processes and their role in the Earth system. We collaborate closely with government agencies, environmental groups, and industry to provide actionable insights.
Why are coastal zones important?
Coastal and shelf seas are the critical interface where the ocean meets the land. They are vital for carbon cycling and the exchange of nutrients between land and sea. Shelf seas are areas of biodiversity hotspots that support fisheries and marine life. They are also hubs for human populations, with over 40% of the world's people living within 100 km of the coast. Understanding these regions is essential for predicting climate patterns, managing resources, and mitigating environmental risks.
Impact of Regional and Coastal Modelling
Regional models simulate how ocean currents, tides, temperature, and salinity behave in specific areas. By capturing fine-scale processes that global models often miss, they provide a clearer picture of how climate change unfolds locally. This helps us:
- Track ocean heat distribution which influences global climate.
- Understand the drivers of sea-level rise and regional variations.
- Analyze coastal upwelling and nutrient cycling which affect marine productivity.
- Model extreme events like storm surges and coastal flooding.
For humans, these models are applied in operational contexts for marine and surge forecasting, and they even play a role in our standard weather forecasts. They are also used to inform coastal planning for future climate scenarios.
For marine life, the models simulate habitat conditions and migration pathways. This data supports conservation efforts and sustainable fisheries management.
Without regional and coastal modelling, we would be blind to local climate impacts. This would make it much harder to prepare for or adapt to changes, leaving coastal communities more vulnerable to flooding, erosion, and extreme weather. Furthermore, policy decisions would lack scientific grounding, reducing their effectiveness and increasing risk.
This research enhances our understanding of climate change by "downscaling" global climate models to show how changes manifest locally. It reveals feedback loops, such as how melting ice affects ocean circulation, and provides essential data for climate adaptation strategies in populated coastal zones.
What projects is NOC conducting?
Our work in this area is varied. High-profile examples include projects such as FOCUS, CANARI, and CHAMFER, as well as initiatives like the Joint Marine Modelling Programme (JMMP) and FLAME. These projects bring together national and international multidisciplinary experts to tackle urgent societal and scientific questions.
The UK Joint Marine Modelling Programme (JMMP)
The JMMP coordinates work nationally to develop flagship regional ocean configurations. In partnership with the Met Office, we co-develop the Atlantic Margin Model (AMM) at 7 km and 1.5 km resolutions. These configurations are used in the UK Met Office's operational numerical weather prediction service and for climate information studies.
NOC is also developing various other regional configurations, including Southeast Asia configurations, the Scottish Shelf Model and its nested models, North Atlantic Arctic (NAARC) configurations and Caribbean configurations.
Tangible outcomes
Our research leads to scientific peer-reviewed papers and data that deepen our knowledge of coastal challenges. These papers inform decision-makers shaping policy and lead to technical improvements in ocean and weather forecasting.
Our AMM15 model developments are part of the UK Met Office operational forecast system and influence UK weather forecasts. Additionally, our NEMO regional modelling capability in European shelf seas is incorporated into the UK Flood Forecasting Centre's operational coastal flood forecasting system. This model is run operationally by the Met Office to deliver information to the Environment Agency, facilitating actionable flood preparedness decisions.
Since many climate change challenges are determined by complex regional processes, we are working towards a global Coastal Ocean Model Intercomparison Project. This will bring together a global community of experts to downscale models from global to regional and local levels.
Interested in learning more?
Explore our work and discover how science helps safeguard marine ecosystems.