Tipping points in the climate system
Tipping points in the climate system are critical thresholds. Once we cross them, natural or social systems can change abruptly and often irreversibly.
In the ocean, this could mean the collapse of major circulation systems like the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), shifts in the Subpolar Gyre, or widespread, long-lasting coral reef bleaching. Events like these could cause large-scale shifts in planetary systems. They can disrupt the physical and biological foundations of the ocean, altering temperature patterns, nutrient cycling, and the productivity that supports entire marine food webs.
Why is researching tipping points vital?
Researching tipping points is vital because their impacts go far beyond the ocean. A slowdown of the AMOC, for instance, would reshape weather patterns across Europe, Africa, and the Americas. At the same time, the loss of ice sheets would accelerate sea-level rise, transforming coastlines worldwide. And coral reef tipping points directly threaten biodiversity and the livelihoods of millions of people.
Which parts of the ocean does this research cover?
This research covers multiple regions of the ocean, from polar ice sheets and high-latitude gyres to tropical coral reefs. It also links directly with other research areas like ocean circulation, ecosystem resilience, climate modelling, and even social sciences. We really need to understand when tipping points might happen, how abrupt they could be, if early warning systems are possible, and what adaptation pathways we have. This is essential for anticipating risks and guiding global responses.
Impacts and Implications
In the marine environment, crossing a tipping point like the collapse of the Subpolar Gyre would fundamentally alter the timing and intensity of the North Atlantic spring bloom. This would reduce the ocean's capacity to absorb CO₂, disrupt food webs, and reshape commercial fisheries. In the same way, a coral reef collapse would devastate biodiversity and undermine food security for coastal populations.
In the climate system, tipping points like an AMOC slowdown or ice sheet melt could drive sea-level rise, alter storm tracks, and trigger widespread changes in temperature and rainfall. This would directly affect agriculture, infrastructure, and human health.
Societal tipping points are just as important, and they can be both disruptive and beneficial. While political instability is a negative tipping point, the rapid adoption of renewable technologies is a positive example. This could potentially accelerate decarbonisation and reduce climate risks.
Without sustained research into these processes, society would face climate tipping points completely unprepared, which would have severe consequences for ecosystems, economies, and communities. By advancing early detection methods, improving climate models, and integrating natural and social sciences, tipping point research gives society the knowledge needed to anticipate, mitigate, and adapt to large-scale Earth system changes, before their impacts escalate into crises.
Podcasts
How does tipping point research inform policy?
Policymakers are strongly interested in tipping point research, especially for shaping temperature-based climate targets. This is also an area of active debate, since the science carries considerable uncertainty. This makes it challenging to translate directly into target-setting. Without careful communication, tipping points could be misunderstood. They might be seen either as reasons to delay emissions cuts until thresholds seem imminent, or as arguments for rushed and risky climate interventions.
NOC plays a constructive role in this global discussion. Working with national and international partners, our research underpins influential IPCC reports, informs government advice, and embeds the latest tipping point science into climate risk assessments, preparedness planning, and marine spatial management. By combining world-class modelling, observations, and interdisciplinary expertise, NOC ensures tipping point science directly informs decisions that safeguard the ocean and society.
How does NOC communicate tipping point research to the public?
Tipping points are complex and difficult to understand. This is especially true when it comes to their potential impacts and whether, or how, this knowledge should influence our actions. At NOC, we communicate our research not only through peer-reviewed papers and scientific conferences, but also through public events, podcasts, and media engagement.
In collaboration with the Royal College of Art, we also explore creative approaches, using art and media to convey the science of tipping points in accessible and engaging ways.
Publications
Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations
Loriani, Sina 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6660-960X; Aksenov, Yevgeny ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6132-3434; Armstrong McKay, David I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0020-7461; Bala, Govindasamy ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3079-0600; Born, Andreas; Chiessi, Cristiano Mazur ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3318-8022; Dijkstra, Henk A.; Donges, Jonathan F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5233-7703; Drijfhout, Sybren; England, Matthew H.; Fedorov, Alexey V.; Jackson, Laura C.; Kornhuber, Kai ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5466-2059; Messori, Gabriele ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2032-5211; Pausata, Francesco S. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5182-8420; Rynders, Stefanie ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1334-4577; Sallée, Jean-Baptiste; Sinha, Bablu; Sherwood, Steven C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7420-8216; Swingedouw, Didier ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0583-0850; Tharammal, Thejna ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5343-8194.
2025
Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations.
Earth System Dynamics, 16 (5).
1611-1653.
10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025
2025
Article
An Early Warning System for Tipping Points in the Greenland Ice Sheet and the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre: Exploring the Edge of the Possible with AEROSTATS.
Gommenginger, Christine ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6941-1671; McCann, David ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4428-700X; Martin, Adrien C.H.; Marquez Martinez, José; Lavender, Sam; Buckingham, Christian; Marzocchi, Alice ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3430-3574; Clément, Louis ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6935-9455; Josey, Simon ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1683-8831.
2025
An Early Warning System for Tipping Points in the Greenland Ice Sheet and the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre: Exploring the Edge of the Possible with AEROSTATS.
[Other]
In: ESA Living Planet Symposium 2025, Vienna, Austria, 23 - 27 June 2025.
(Unpublished)
2025
Conference item
Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review
Wunderling, Nico; von der Heydt, Anna S.; Aksenov, Yevgeny ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6132-3434; Barker, Stephen; Bastiaansen, Robbin; Brovkin, Victor; Brunetti, Maura; Couplet, Victor; Kleinen, Thomas; Lear, Caroline H.; Lohmann, Johannes; Roman-Cuesta, Rosa Maria; Sinet, Sacha; Swingedouw, Didier; Winkelmann, Ricarda; Anand, Pallavi; Barichivich, Jonathan; Bathiany, Sebastian; Baudena, Mara; Bruun, John T.; Chiessi, Cristiano M.; Coxall, Helen K.; Docquier, David; Donges, Jonathan F.; Falkena, Swinda K. J.; Klose, Ann Kristin; Obura, David; Rocha, Juan; Rynders, Stefanie ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1334-4577; Steinert, Norman Julius; Willeit, Matteo.
2024
Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review.
Earth System Dynamics, 15 (1).
41-74.
10.5194/esd-15-41-2024
2024
Article
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