What is the Ocean Modelling Group's core work?
Our Ocean Modelling Group develops, runs, and analyses some of the world's most detailed global ocean models. They also develop and maintain one of the world's leading ocean biogeochemistry models. These models are a key part of the Earth System Models used for critical climate studies.
Modelling the ocean in incredible detail enables us to understand the ocean's role in climate variability and climate change, and to explain the causes of changes we see in observations.
Complex models of the ocean are essential because they allow scientists to simulate the ocean's vast and dynamic behaviour, which is otherwise difficult or impossible to observe directly. By modelling the oceans in great detail, we are able to explore the complex processes and start to understand the likelihood of major changes in the ocean and their potential impacts.
What role does the ocean play in climate?
The ocean regulates the Earth's climate by absorbing about a quarter of human-caused carbon dioxide and over 90% of the excess heat from greenhouse gas emissions.
It also redistributes heat globally through currents, increases atmospheric humidity, and produces about 50% of the world's oxygen.
How do global ocean models support other research?
Our global ocean models provide a vital "big picture" context for a wide range of research applications. Model simulations can be used to design and test observing systems, to understand the causes of events like marine heatwaves, and to unpick complex physical processes related to changes in the climate system. They can also be used to study how, for example, oil from an oil spill might spread, and they provide vital data to support even more detailed, regional models of our coastal areas. In addition, with suitable forcing data or by coupling to an atmosphere, ocean models can be used for future projections which provide key information for decision-makers.
Major Projects Using Our Global Models
Our models are used across a wide range of projects spanning from fundamental ocean physics through to marine ecosystems and human activities, such as fisheries, offshore wind and coastal defences. One example is ISOTIPIC, a major UK project jointly led by NOC, which aims to understand the processes that control the critical "tipping points" associated with our oceans and ice sheets. The team is looking at things like the potential collapse of the Atlantic's great overturning circulation and the melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. A detailed, high-resolution global ocean model is clearly an essential tool for this kind of investigation.
Our Ocean Models
We don't build our models in isolation. NOC is a long-term partner in the NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) consortium. We have two permanent members on the NEMO system team who help to develop and maintain the core model code, ensuring it meets the high standards demanded by the international community. We also work closely with the UK Met Office through the Joint Marine Modelling Programme to ensure that the oceans in the coupled Atmosphere-Ocean modelling systems are fit for purpose.
The biological and chemical component of our models is our very own MEDUSA (Model of Ecosystem Dynamics, Nutrient Utilisation, Sequestration and Acidification). It was developed entirely by our team of experts and is a key part of the UK Earth System Model, UKESM1.
At their core, ocean models are built upon the fundamental physics of fluid motion. They use complex mathematical equations to represent how water moves. In their pure form, these equations are impossible to solve. To make them solvable, we create a digital version of the ocean, covering it with a grid of points. The fineness of this grid determines the model's resolution. We give the model a starting point based on the best available observations and then, using powerful supercomputers, we run the simulation forward in time, step by step, to see how the ocean evolves.
Most of the effort required to run a realistic ocean simulation in the model development and the preparation. Accurately coded algorithms are essential, and it requires a lot of expertise to choose appropriate schemes and parameters. After this, we need a good starting point, realistic weather conditions at the sea surface and a lot of computing power. Depending on the resolution, our models run on hundreds to tens of thousands of CPU cores.
Our models can be used to address some of the biggest challenges we face, such as:
- Future Ocean Productivity: Research like the 2015 paper by Yool, Popova, and Coward, which asked, "Is the Arctic the new Atlantic?"
- Large-Scale Ocean Changes: Studies like the 2025 paper by Dong, Aksenov, and colleagues, which examined the key drivers of change in the North Atlantic.
- How should we measure our oceans?: Many of the ocean observing systems in operation today, such as RAPID, were tested using ocean models.
These studies provide fundamental insights into how our planet works, but they also connect to changes that could have a major impact on society.
Sharing Our Modelling Work
Our first challenge is making hundreds of terabytes of data easily accessible to other scientists, along with the information they need to know how to use it. We work jointly with other scientists to combine knowledge from observations and models to produce results which are of value to society. Making sure our results are communicated clearly to decision makers and the public is just as important as the science itself.
The animations from our ocean models are a fantastic way to bring the ocean to life. They create eye-catching displays that help to explain the complexities of oceanography and the ocean's role in our climate. These can range from simple videos of surface currents to bespoke displays on interactive globes.
Where are these materials used?
We use these visualisations all the time at our open days, during school visits, and at VIP and stakeholder events. They were also a popular feature at our exhibit at the Royal Society Summer Science Exhibition in 2024 and at the World Premiere of David Attenborough's 2025 film, Ocean.
Interested in learning more about our global ocean modelling work?
Explore how our high-resolution simulations are advancing our understanding of the ocean and our climate.